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Indicator↕ | Measures↕ | Frequency↕ | Source↕ | Importance↕ | Known For↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | Total value of goods and services produced in a country | Quarterly | Bureau of Economic Analysis / National Statistics | Primary measure of a nation's economic health and growth rate | The single most cited number for comparing economies worldwide |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services | Monthly | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Primary measure of inflation affecting consumer purchasing power | Directly influences Federal Reserve interest rate decisions |
Unemployment Rate | Percentage of the labor force actively seeking but unable to find work | Monthly | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Key indicator of labor market health and economic distress | Lags behind other indicators; rises sharply during recessions |
Federal Funds Rate | Interest rate at which banks lend reserves to each other overnight | 8 meetings/year | Federal Reserve (FOMC) | Determines the cost of borrowing across the entire economy | The most powerful tool central banks use to control inflation and growth |
Nonfarm Payrolls | Number of jobs added or lost in the economy excluding farm workers | Monthly | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Most market-moving employment report; signals economic momentum | Released first Friday of each month; causes major market volatility |
Producer Price Index (PPI) | Average change in selling prices received by domestic producers | Monthly | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Leading indicator of consumer inflation; measures wholesale price changes | Price pressures at the producer level eventually reach consumers |
Trade Balance | Difference between a country's exports and imports | Monthly | Census Bureau / Customs | Affects currency valuation and reflects international competitiveness | Persistent deficits can weaken a currency; surpluses strengthen it |
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) | Degree of optimism consumers feel about the economy | Monthly | The Conference Board | Predicts consumer spending which drives ~70% of US GDP | Sharp drops often precede recessions as consumers cut spending |
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) | Survey of purchasing managers on business conditions | Monthly | Institute for Supply Management | Leading indicator; above 50 signals expansion, below 50 signals contraction | One of the first indicators released each month; highly predictive |
Housing Starts | Number of new residential construction projects begun | Monthly | Census Bureau | Leading indicator of economic activity and consumer confidence | Housing sector is often the first to fall before a recession |
Retail Sales | Total receipts at retail and food services stores | Monthly | Census Bureau | Measures consumer spending health; spending is the economy's engine | Holiday season retail sales can make or break annual economic growth |
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread) | Difference between long-term and short-term Treasury yields | Continuous | U.S. Treasury | Inverted curve has predicted every US recession since the 1950s | Most reliable recession predictor; an inversion signals trouble ahead |
GDP Growth Rate | Quarter-over-quarter percentage change in GDP | Quarterly | Bureau of Economic Analysis | Shows whether the economy is accelerating or decelerating | Two consecutive quarters of negative growth defines a technical recession |
Balance of Payments | Record of all economic transactions between a country and the world | Quarterly | Bureau of Economic Analysis / IMF | Tracks capital flows and international financial position | Reveals whether a country is a net borrower or lender to the world |
Gini Coefficient | Income inequality within a population on a 0-1 scale | Annual | World Bank / Census Bureau | Measures wealth distribution; higher values indicate greater inequality | Used globally to compare inequality across nations and over time |
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